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Expected GP · Pick 1
Every draft slot priced by what the players taken there actually did (expected career games, NHLer rates, star rates), on a Schuckers-style curve fit to this dataset. The cliff is steeper than draft night makes it feel.
Schuckers-style expected career games played at each overall slot, from the classes old enough to judge. Square-root pick axis so the top of the draft doesn't hide its own drop.
"By pick 100, the expected career is about an eighth of pick 1's. Everything after round three is a lottery ticket with good odds of nothing."
| Pick band | Expected GP | NHLer rate | Impact rate | Star rate | 10-yr stayer | Sample |
|---|
Picks outside round one that returned first-overall careers. Delta is games played above the slot's expected career.
Top-ten selections whose careers fell furthest short of what the slot historically returns.
"Games played per kept pick is the bluntest honest measure: it can't be gamed by one lottery win, and it punishes teams that draft well and develop badly."